Population Dynamics

The life course perspective serves as the common denominator in the research projects of PopDyn. The overall theme of 'Lives in Contexts' is elaborated in three related research strands: Population Projections and Models, Migration and Integration, and Health. The models and methods that are developed and applied aim to improve population and health projections, to estimate international migration flows and to assess the impact of health interventions.

Demographic changes are closely related to economic, social, cultural and political contexts. Changes in these contexts have major consequences for fertility, mortality and migration and thus have an impact on the size and composition of the population. On the other hand, population growth, population ageing and the growing number of migrants have significant implications for economic growth, labour markets, healthcare, pensions, housing, integration, social cohesion, the environment and the like. For this reason our research focuses on interdisciplinary analyses that take the multiple causes and consequences of demographic change into account. This is the core of the research strand Population Projections and Models. Wihin this strand a new theme is population decline. In Europe, population growth has slowed down significantly in the last decades. In a number of countries, especially in Eastern Europe, population growth is already negative. In the next decades most countries will face net population loss. National level trends however, mask considerable within-country differences between regions, where in general the economic core regions experience continued growth and population losses are concentrated in the periphery. In general, population decline is a rural phenomenon, although there are also urban regions (often peripheral) that face population losses.
Our research focuses on two different but related issues around population decline: causes and consequences. When dealing with causes, a distinction can be made between demographic causes (regional variation in fertility, mortality and migration), geographical causes (urbanization, spatial concentration and agglomeration processes), economic causes (triggers from economic geography), and other causes, including cultural. With respect to the consequences NIDI research centres around issues that have a close link with demographic structural change, such as schooling, labour market, the position of the elderly and health care.
The spatial scale of the process of population decline is important. Many issues of population decline focus on the effect of decline on wellbeing. Especially in rural regions, the appropriate scale to study wellbeing is the very local level of the village. Surprisingly, at this spatial level not much is known of demographic change. For instance, selective migration of elderly persons from the smallest villages to rural centres may have a differential impact on the age structure. As a result of these processes, ageing may take place in the larger rural centres, whereas net rejuvenation may take place in smaller villages. NIDI has extensive experience in studying regional demographic change at the European level. Comparative international research in this area is therefore part of its expertise. At the same time, given the small scale of academic demographic research there is also a need within the Netherlands to take the lead in this type of research. In 2011 this theme will be developed further to investigate potential acquisition channels, both nationally and internationally.

International migration is set to play a major part in shaping the demographic future and thus the second research strand focuses on international migration and the integration of migrants in Europe. Both substantive and methodological issues are addressed. International comparative data on the process of integration is scarce. Our research on the life course of migrant families including both immigrants and their children (the second generation) in Europe will seek to add to our knowledge on this issue. To improve the reliability and completeness of international migration statistics, NIDI is also engaged in developing and applying estimation methods to yield estimates of international migration flows.

The third research strand focuses on health and includes both analyses of health status and health care. The impact of risk factors on the future demand of long term care is analysed. For this purpose multistate models are used similarly to the models developed in the Projections strand. Furthermore the factors that have contributed to improving the survival rate of children and adults in the recent and more distant past are analysed with a special focus on the long-term effects of pre-natal under-nutrition. In addition the effects of health systems on the availability and affordability of healthcare are analysed. Affordable healthcare means the provision of care at a reasonable cost, both for governments and for the private sector (companies, households). Financial information is crucial to understanding the performance of health systems.