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Project: MEDPRO [concluded]

Prospective analysis for the Mediterranean region

Objective of the MEDPRO project is to develop policy options and strategies for the period 2010-2050 for 11 Mediterranean countries (MED11) addressing economic, political and financial markets reforms as well as measures to overcome demographic, social, health, environmental and infrastructural pressures. MED11 countries are Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey. The MEDPRO project is coordinated by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and NIDI leads a work-package on demographic research and scenarios, and collaborates with the Faculty of Economics and Political Science of the Cairo University (FEPS), the Palestinian Economic Policy Research Institute (MAS), the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and the Quantitative Studies (ITCEQ), and the Institut Marocain des Relations Internationales (IMRI).

In a first phase partial scenarios are developed for different themes, covering demographic, economic, social, health, environmental and political issues. These scenarios are derived from a common scenario framework building on four different sets of assumptions about future economic growth in MED11 countries and forms of cooperation with EU countries. In a second phase, results of partial scenarios are pooled to derive four sets of integrated scenarios. In a final phase, scenario results and policy implications are conveyed to MED11 and EU policy makers through policy briefs and sensitization workshops.

From these general economic-political scenarios NIDI developed four different but coherent sets of qualitative and quantitative assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration leading to four different population scenarios for MED11 countries. First results reveal that the 2010 MED11 population of 280 million is expected to grow to a number between 396 and 425 million by 2050, depending on the scenario. In comparison, the EU-27 population is expected to grow from about 500 to 525 million in that period. MED11 countries differ markedly in population size and population growth rates. Regional population growth is predominantly determined by growth in the largest two countries, Egypt and Turkey, where in 2010, 81.1 and 72.8 million people lived, respectively. Conversely, population size of the two smallest countries, Palestine (O.P.T) and Lebanon, was 4.0 and 4.2 million, respectively. The figures below summarize scenario results for Egypt and Turkey and they show that the long-term effects of the four scenarios become most visible in the bottom of the age pyramid. For instance, scenario 2 results show that in both countries the process of ageing is well under way by 2050 as younger cohorts have become much smaller than cohorts at intermediate ages.

More information on the project is available on the MEDPRO project website.

Publication(s)

Groenewold, W.G.F. & Beer, J.A.A. de (2014),
Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region. In: Eurostat/UNECE/ISTAT (eds.): Proceedings of the Sixth Eurostat/Uneca Work Session on Demographic Projections, Rome (Italy) 29-31 October 2013. Roma: Instituto Nationale di Statistica, p. 139-150. [URL]
Groenewold, W.G.F. & Beer, J.A.A. de (2013),
Population scenarios and policy implications for South Mediterranean countries, 2010-2050. : MEDPro , 24 p. [pdf]
Groenewold, W.G.F. (2012),
Demographic indicators and determinants in MED 11 countries: Israel. The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute , p.
Groenewold, W.G.F. (2012),
Demographic indicators and determinants in MED 11 countries: Turkey. The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute , p.
Groenewold, W.G.F., Beer, J.A.A. de & Huisman, C.C. (2012),
Population scenarios 2010-2050 for MED11 countries: a MEDPRO WP3 research report. The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) , 76 p. [pdf]

NIDI Research team

Project website



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