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Project: DEA [concluded]


The general research aim of this project is to develop methods to improve mortality and morbidity forecasts by modelling the expected effects of known secular changes of risk factors and policy interventions to reduce risk factors. Specific aims are the expected effects of risk factor trends on mortality, physical disability, cognitive decline and duration of care dependence.

The main methods are multistate life tables that model (parts of) the life course. These life tables model risk factors as causes, mortality and disability states both as outcome (of risk factor status) and cause (of death or transition to another health status, including recovery). Reliable causal models need longitudinal data. For the time being we use the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a relatively recent cohort of middle-aged and elderly persons. These data are appropriate as they describe the consequences of population ageing as the main determinants of care dependence and mortality. The choice of the HRS was determined in part by the ongoing European SHARE study, modelled on the HRS. When more survey rounds become available, SHARE will deliver longitudinal, recent European data pertaining to the same questions.


Reuser, M., F.J. Willekens & L. Bonneux (2011),
Higher education delays and shortens cognitive impairment; a multistate life table analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study. European Journal of Epidemiology 26 (5): 395-403. [pdf]
Reuser, M. (2010),
De vervaldatum van ons brein; ouderdomsdementie en het effect van opleiding. In: L. Bonneux (ed.), De gezonde levensloop; een geschenk van vele generaties. Boekaflevering Mens & Maatschappij 85, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, p. 109-116.
Reuser, M. (2010),
The effect of risk factors on disability; A multistate analysis of the U.S. health and retirement study, Doctoral dissertation, Groningen University. Amsterdam: Rozenberg Publishers, 137 p.
Reuser, M., L.G. Bonneux & F.J. Willekens (2009),
Smoking kills, obesity disables: a multistate approach of the US Health and Retirement Survey.Obesity 17 (4): 783-789. [pdf]
Reuser, M. (2008),
Dementie: keerzijde van een lang leven. Demos, bulletin over bevolking en samenleving 24 (10): 1-3. [pdf]
Bonneux, L. & M. Reuser (2007),
Overgewicht en sterfterisico: geen samenhang tussen overgewicht op middelbare en oudere leeftijd en verhoogde sterfte. Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde 151 (50): 2764-2769. [pdf]
Reuser, M. (2007),
Maak je niet dik! Het effect van overgewicht op sterfte nader onderzocht. Demos, bulletin over bevolking en samenleving 23 (10): 5-7. [pdf]


Research team

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